{"id":4967,"date":"2020-02-24T18:31:55","date_gmt":"2020-02-24T09:31:55","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/163.180.4.222\/lab\/?p=4967"},"modified":"2020-02-24T19:34:35","modified_gmt":"2020-02-24T10:34:35","slug":"when-will-the-coronavirus-outbreak-peak","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/?p=4967","title":{"rendered":"When will the coronavirus outbreak peak?"},"content":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h5>Officials want to know but predictions vary wildly, from now to after hundreds of millions of people are infected.<\/h5>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<div class=\"article__body serif cleared\">\n<figure class=\"figure\">\n<div class=\"embed intensity--high\">\n<div class=\"embed intensity--high\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"figure__image\" src=\"https:\/\/media.nature.com\/lw800\/magazine-assets\/d41586-020-00361-5\/d41586-020-00361-5_17668880.jpg\" alt=\"People seen lining up outside a pharmacy store in China.\" data-src=\"\/\/media.nature.com\/lw800\/magazine-assets\/d41586-020-00361-5\/d41586-020-00361-5_17668880.jpg\" \/><\/div>\n<\/div><figcaption>\n<p class=\"figure__caption sans-serif\"><span class=\"mr10\">Officials want to know roughly when the outbreak will peak so they can prepare hospitals.<\/span>Credit: SOPA Images\/LightRocket\/Getty<\/p>\n<\/figcaption><\/figure>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Coronavirus infections in China continue to swell by thousands a day, prompting epidemiologists to estimate when the outbreak will peak. Some suggest the climax, when the number of new infections in a single day reaches its highest point, will happen any time now. Others say that it is months away and that the virus will infect millions \u2014 or in one estimate hundreds of millions \u2014 of people first.<\/p>\n<p>Public health officials want to know roughly when the peak will be \u2014 and how many will be infected \u2014 so that they can prepare hospitals and know when it will be safe to lift travel restrictions. Wuhan, the city at the centre of the epidemic, and several other nearby cities have been on lockdown since late January.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<aside class=\"recommended pull pull--left sans-serif\" data-label=\"Related\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-020-00154-w\" data-track=\"click\" data-track-label=\"recommended article\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"recommended__image\" src=\"https:\/\/media.nature.com\/w400\/magazine-assets\/d41586-020-00361-5\/d41586-020-00361-5_17621922.jpg\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"recommended__title serif\">Latest news on the coronavirus<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Although peak predictions can be illuminating, some researchers warn that accuracy is difficult to achieve, especially when the data used in models are incomplete. \u201cIf you revise your predictions every week to say that the outbreak will peak in a week or two, eventually you will be correct,\u201d says Brian Labus, who works on disease surveillance at the University of Nevada, Las Vegas.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Optimistic scenario<\/h2>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>On 11 February, Zhong Nanshan, a prominent Chinese physician leading a panel of experts helping to control the outbreak, said that the coronavirus will possibly peak by the end of February. Zhong, who is famous for discovering the SARS virus, said the situation had improved with government control measures, such as travel restrictions and extended holidays, although he admitted that it was still a \u201cdifficult period\u201d for Wuhan.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<aside class=\"recommended pull pull--left sans-serif\" data-label=\"Related\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-020-00444-3\" data-track=\"click\" data-track-label=\"recommended article\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"recommended__image\" src=\"https:\/\/media.nature.com\/w400\/magazine-assets\/d41586-020-00361-5\/d41586-020-00361-5_17718172.jpg\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"recommended__title serif\">More than 80 clinical trials launch to test coronavirus treatments<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>So far, more than 70,000 people have been confirmed to have the disease, now known as COVID-19, in China. But many scientists assume that the number of cases is higher than is being reported. They suspect that China has too few diagnostic tests and health-care workers to confirm all cases. Some scientists also wonder whether Zhong is just trying to reassure people, given the outbreak\u2019s impact on the economy and society.<\/p>\n<p>At least one model aligns with Zhong\u2019s estimate. Researchers at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine predict that the peak could occur anytime now. Sebastian Funk, a statistician who models infectious diseases and who coauthored the analysis, says the prediction is based on an estimate that one infected person in Wuhan was, on average, infecting between 1.5 and 4.5 others \u2014 a measure known as the virus\u2019s effective reproduction number, or R \u2014 before the travel restrictions were introduced on 23 January. Funk estimates that at the peak around a million people, about 10% of Wuhan&#8217;s population, will be infected.<\/p>\n<p>Funk posted the analysis, which has not been peer-reviewed, on his\u00a0<a href=\"https:\/\/cmmid.github.io\/ncov\/wuhan_early_dynamics\/index.html\" data-track=\"click\" data-label=\"https:\/\/cmmid.github.io\/ncov\/wuhan_early_dynamics\/index.html\" data-track-category=\"body text link\">institute\u2019s website<\/a>\u00a0on 12 February. But he says that since it was done, a decline in the number of new cases and deaths in Wuhan suggests that infections might have already peaked. (More than 14,000 new cases were reported on 13 February, but the bump was due to authorities changing the way cases are diagnosed and not a true spike).<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Worst case<\/h2>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Some researchers find such predictions overly optimistic. People in most Chinese cities started returning to work last week after an extended public-holiday period \u2014 opening up the possibility of new chains of transmission, says Hiroshi Nishiura, an epidemiologist at Hokkaido University in Sapporo, Japan.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<aside class=\"recommended pull pull--left sans-serif\" data-label=\"Related\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-020-00354-4\" data-track=\"click\" data-track-label=\"recommended article\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"recommended__image\" src=\"https:\/\/media.nature.com\/w400\/magazine-assets\/d41586-020-00361-5\/d41586-020-00361-5_17683538.jpg\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"recommended__title serif\">Coronavirus: hospitals must learn from past pandemics<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Nishiura says he has used a model that estimates that the outbreak will peak sometime between late March and late May. At this point, he says, up to 2.3 million cases will be diagnosed in a single day. In total, he estimates that between 550 million and 650 million people across China will be infected, roughly 40% of the country\u2019s population. Nishiura says that about half of those people will show symptoms.<\/p>\n<p>Nishiura says he has submitted a paper describing the model and its prediction to the preprint server medRxiv. To make such a prediction, he says that his team considered the transmission potential inherent to the new virus \u2014 the basic reproduction number known as R0, which is related to R, although it assumes that everyone in the population is susceptible to infection. The team estimates the R0 is between 1.5 and 2.<\/p>\n<p>He says that his model presents a relatively simplistic outlook because it assumes that everyone in the population is susceptible. It also reflects the view that many people who have been infected are asymptomatic or not unwell enough to seek medical treatment. If that is the case, the current number of reported cases massively underestimates the number of people infected, he says.<\/p>\n<p>Gabriel Leung, an epidemiologist at the University of Hong Kong, says that Nishiura\u2019s estimates are feasible. The community has no immunity to SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19 so \u201cit will sweep through\u201d, he says.<\/p>\n<p>Leung says that while those estimates sound extreme, it\u2019s still not clear how deadly the virus is. The latest calculation of the fatality rate, in a paper published by Zhong on 9 February, suggests that there are about 1.36 deaths per hundred cases. But that number is probably too high because the authors did not consider less severe cases. (Outside China, two deaths have been reported in 500 cases.)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<h2>Quarantine measures<\/h2>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Leung says it&#8217;s also unclear what effect, if any, that control measures, such as travel bans and quarantining people, have had on the timing and severity of the peak. Nishiura and Funk say their models excluded these measures because their efficacy is uncertain.<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<aside class=\"recommended pull pull--left sans-serif\" data-label=\"Related\"><a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-020-00379-9\" data-track=\"click\" data-track-label=\"recommended article\"><img decoding=\"async\" class=\"recommended__image\" src=\"https:\/\/media.nature.com\/w400\/magazine-assets\/d41586-020-00361-5\/d41586-020-00361-5_17683534.jpg\" \/><\/a><\/p>\n<p class=\"recommended__title serif\">As coronavirus spreads, the time to think about the next epidemic is now<\/p>\n<\/aside>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>Many scientists say that control measures might not, ultimately, decrease the number of people infected. But they could extend the time taken for the epidemic to peak, by slowing transmission, says Leung.<\/p>\n<p>Reducing the number of people who get infected at the peak is important, says Leung. If everyone gets sick at the same time, \u201cthe entire society grinds to a halt,\u201d he says. \u201cHealth services will be overwhelmed and people will die.\u201d<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<\/div>\n<div class=\"emphasis\">doi: 10.1038\/d41586-020-00361-5<\/div>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>(\uc6d0\ubb38: <a href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/d41586-020-00361-5?utm_source=feedburner&amp;utm_medium=feed&amp;utm_campaign=Feed%3A+nature%2Frss%2Fcurrent+%28Nature+-+Issue%29\">\uc5ec\uae30<\/a>\ub97c \ud074\ub9ad\ud558\uc138\uc694~)<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n<p>&nbsp;<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>&nbsp; &nbsp; Officials want to know but predictions vary wildly, from now to after hundreds of millions of people are infected. &nbsp; &nbsp; Officials want<a href=\"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/?p=4967\" class=\"more-link\">(more&#8230;)<\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_monsterinsights_skip_tracking":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_active":false,"_monsterinsights_sitenote_note":"","_monsterinsights_sitenote_category":0,"jetpack_post_was_ever_published":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_access":"","_jetpack_dont_email_post_to_subs":false,"_jetpack_newsletter_tier_id":0,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paywalled_content":false,"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":true,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","default_image_id":0,"font":"","enabled":false},"version":2}},"categories":[32,33,29],"tags":[],"class_list":["post-4967","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","hentry","category-essays-on-science","category-do-biology","category-lets-do-science"],"aioseo_notices":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack-related-posts":[{"id":4963,"url":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/?p=4963","url_meta":{"origin":4967,"position":0},"title":"Scientists question China\u2019s decision not to report symptom-free coronavirus cases","author":"biochemistry","date":"February 24, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0 Researchers say that excluding these people could conceal the epidemic\u2019s true extent, but others say the practice makes sense. \u00a0 \u00a0 Researchers want to know how many people with the coronavirus don't have symptoms.Credit: Stringer\/Getty \u00a0 \u00a0 Researchers are concerned that China\u2019s official reports on the number of\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Essays on Science&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Essays on Science","link":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/?cat=32"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4720,"url":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/?p=4720","url_meta":{"origin":4967,"position":1},"title":"Measles erases immune \u2018memory\u2019 for other diseases &#038; How measles causes the body to \u2018forget\u2019 past infections","author":"biochemistry","date":"November 2, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 Results from tests of unvaccinated children and monkeys come as measles cases spike around the world. \u00a0 \u00a0 Children with measles receive care in a hospital in the Philippines.Credit: Ezra Acayan\/Getty \u00a0 \u00a0 Measles infections in children can wipe out the immune system\u2019s memory of other illnesses such as\u00a0influenza,\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Let's Do Biology!&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Let's Do Biology!","link":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/?cat=33"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":4971,"url":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/?p=4971","url_meta":{"origin":4967,"position":2},"title":"Coronavirus epidemic snarls science worldwide","author":"biochemistry","date":"February 24, 2020","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0 Like most universities in China, the campus of Huazhong University of Science and Technology in Wuhan is deserted. PHOTO: STRINGER\/GETTY IMAGES \u00a0 \u00a0 The coronavirus epidemic now racing across China is forcing Jeffrey Erlich, a Canadian neuroscientist at New York University Shanghai, to weigh his science against concern\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Essays on Science&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Essays on Science","link":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/?cat=32"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2977,"url":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/?p=2977","url_meta":{"origin":4967,"position":3},"title":"Virus tricks the immune system into ignoring bacterial infections","author":"biochemistry","date":"March 29, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0 \u00a0 The finding could explain why the body tolerates some microbes \u2015 and lead to better treatments for chronic infections. \u00a0 \u00a0 Pseudomonas aeruginosa\u00a0bacteria can be responsible for persistent infections in wounds such as bedsores.\u00a0Credit: James Cavallini\/Science Photo Library \u00a0 \u00a0 A bacterium which is responsible for about\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Let's Do Biology!&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Let's Do Biology!","link":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/?cat=33"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2679,"url":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/?p=2679","url_meta":{"origin":4967,"position":4},"title":"Faster, better, cheaper: the rise of CRISPR in disease detection","author":"biochemistry","date":"February 20, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0 Powerful gene-editing tool could help to diagnose illnesses such as Lassa fever early and rein in the spread of infection. \u00a0 Fehintola Ajogbasile, a graduate student at the African Centre of Excellence for Genomics of Infectious Diseases in Nigeria, uses a CRISPR diagnostic test to look for Lassa\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Let's Do Biology!&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Let's Do Biology!","link":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/?cat=33"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]},{"id":2533,"url":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/?p=2533","url_meta":{"origin":4967,"position":5},"title":"How a fever helps the immune system to battle infection","author":"biochemistry","date":"January 18, 2019","format":false,"excerpt":"\u00a0 \u00a0 The fever that accompanies many infections prompts production of heat-shock proteins, which protect cells from cold, heat and other stresses. Credit: Vicky Kasala Productions\/Getty \u00a0 \u00a0 One type of immune cell jumps into the fray after body temperature rises, according to experiments in mice. \u00a0 A fever fights\u2026","rel":"","context":"In &quot;Let's Do Biology!&quot;","block_context":{"text":"Let's Do Biology!","link":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/?cat=33"},"img":{"alt_text":"","src":"","width":0,"height":0},"classes":[]}],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":false,"jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9Xo1j-1i7","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4967","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=4967"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4967\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":4968,"href":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/4967\/revisions\/4968"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=4967"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=4967"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/biochemistry.khu.ac.kr\/lab\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=4967"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}